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2010 is Already Here
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Though it has only been two weeks since the 2008 election cycle drew to a close, certain politicians are already making decisions about their next campaign. In North Carolina, Rep. Heath Shuler, just re-elected to his 11th district seat, is reportedly not ruling out a challenge to freshman Republican Sen. Richard Burr in the next election. Shuler, a former NFL quarterback for the Washington Redskins and New Orleans Saints, attained sports fame when he led the University of Tennessee Volunteers during the 1992 and ’93 football seasons. Politically, he unseated Rep. Charlie Taylor in 2006, and won an easy re-election earlier this month. Just defeated Rep. Nancy Boyda of Kansas is also looking at a Senate race, since incumbent Sen. Sam Brownback has announced he will forego another term in Washington to instead run for Governor. Boyda isn’t ruling out the statewide run, but says she will more likely attempt to regain the congressional seat she just lost to Rep-Elect Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka). With California Rep. Dan Lungren now challenging House Minority Leader John Boehner for the top post in the Republican Conference, his Democratic opponent from the last two elections, physician Bill Durston, is telling supporters that he, too, will run again in 2010. Lungren outlasted Durston 50-44% in northern California’s 3rd congressional district, a significantly weaker performance than his 59-38% victory margin from 2006.

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Governors to Headline Campaigns

The coming political cycle will feature 38 gubernatorial races, of which 18 sitting Governors are barred from seeking re-election. Larger states like California, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will host statewide races absent an incumbent, as will smaller domains such as Wyoming and Hawaii. At least three US Senators are said to be considering running for their state’s chief executive post. Sens. Dianne Feinstein (California), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Texas), and Sam Brownback (Kansas) may each enter an open race for Governor from their respective states. Expect several House members to test the statewide waters as well, such as Reps. Lincoln Davis in Tennessee and Gresham Barrett of South Carolina, while Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ponders a similar path for South Dakota. 2009 will feature two gubernatorial campaigns: Virginia’s open seat because Gov. Tim Kaine is limited to just one term, and New Jersey where Gov. Jon Corzine is eligible to seek a second four years in office. Former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe just announced his intention to run in the Old Dominion. Should he win the contested Democratic primary, his general election opponent will be GOP Attorney General Bob McDonnell, already the consensus Republican candidate. These small-scale presidential-type races have the potential of generating huge interest and will become mini-barometers to rate performance of the new Obama Administration.

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LA-4: THE FINAL GENERAL ELECTION

When Hurricane Gustav blew through Louisiana in early September causing further damage to this weather-ravaged region, Gov. Bobby Jindal decided to change the statewide election schedule. He first moved the original September 6th primary vote to the October 4th second election date. If no nomination run-off was required, the general election occurred as originally planned. If a second primary became necessary, then a December 6th vote was added to the schedule. Two congressional races fell into this latter category, the New Orleans seat of Rep. Bill Jefferson, and the open 4th district located in the northwestern part of the state (Rep. Jim McCrery retiring).

With the indicted Representative Jefferson expected to cruise to another re-election in the heavily Democratic 2nd district, all attention becomes focused on LA-4. The district, anchored by the twin cities of Shreveport and Bossier City, has been in Republican hands since McCrery’s original special election victory back in 1988. Winning that contest with 51%, McCrery would go on to secure nine more terms, only two of which were in the 50 percentile range. He scored 55% in 1990 and 58% in 2006. Rep. McCrery averaged 75% in his seven other elections, despite the district’s African American population soaring to 33%. As is the common knowledge, the black community represents the most loyal of Democratic Party supporters.

In an open situation, LA-4 is difficult to predict. The Democratic nominee is Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche. He was expected to win outright (50% + one vote) in the October primary election, but was forced into a run-off with attorney and retired Army officer Willie Banks, despite the latter having little money. Carmouche then won the run-off eight days ago scoring a 62%-38% victory.

Physician John Fleming is the Republican nominee, out-dueling businessman Chris Gorman 56-44% in the run-off after overcoming a spending deficit of more than $1 million (for the entire nomination cycle). McCrery’s endorsed candidate, Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson, was defeated in the first election, placing third in a tight three-way contest.

In the just-completed election, John McCain notched 59.5% in the 4th district against Barack Obama’s 39.4%. Statewide, McCain’s margin was a similar 59-40%. President Bush also posted a 59% congressional district number here in 2004. Conversely, Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu carried the region in her ’08 Senate battle against state Treasurer John Kennedy. Underperforming her statewide number, Landrieu carried the 4th with 50.3%, as compared to her 52-46% result when measuring the entire Louisiana voting population.

In the congressional race, while McCain was easily the choice of the general election voters, almost 2/3 of the ballot casters chose to vote in the Democratic run-off. A total of 150,171 D-votes were recorded compared to 77,417 tallies for the Republican contest, a number that could suggest a Democratic general election advantage.

Paul Carmouche was originally elected Caddo Parish (Shreveport) DA back in 1978, and has served five consecutive six-year terms. He was once viewed as the congressional favorite, but his somewhat lackluster showing so far added to his controversial image in the black community seems to lessen his December chances. Several years ago in a highly publicized case, Carmouche failed to prosecute police officers for shooting and killing an unarmed African American man as he was walking away from them in a convenience store parking lot. The action was caught on film, yet Carmouche saw no reason to bring charges. Such hard feelings may make it difficult for the DA to generate excitement in the black community, which is essential for any Democrat to win here.

John Fleming is a physician who is making his first run for federal office. A former Webster County coroner, Fleming has practiced medicine for 29 years even earning the 2007 Louisiana Family Doctor of the Year award. He is running as a strong conservative, vocal in his opposition to the series of federal financial bailouts. Fleming largely self-funded his nomination effort, spending personal funds approaching $775,000 of his $1.007 million in total receipts (through Oct. 15).

With both candidates and parties enjoying only certain advantages here, the LA-4 general election promises to be a close battle. With a little over three weeks remaining in the final voting cycle, this race must be rated a pure Toss-up.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

On to 2010!

With the 2008 election cycle all but complete, it’s not too early to look at the many interesting 2010 Senate races that will soon develop. Republicans yet again, despite their huge losses in the last two elections, must defend the greater number of seats. Nineteen GOP Senators stand for re-election in 2010 versus sixteen Democrats, thus minimizing the chances of changing the majority. Questions surround many big names. Will John McCain, at 74 and fresh off his stinging nationwide loss, seek another term in the Senate? Will Sarah Palin enter a special election if Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens is expelled over his federal fraud conviction? Will Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger challenge Sen. Barbara Boxer in California? Who will Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich appoint to succeed President-Elect Barack Obama, and can that person win a full term in 2010? Will new Delaware Gov. Jack Markell’s pick to replace Vice-President-Elect Joe Biden successfully win election in his or her own right? How will McCain’s partner in changing the American electoral system, Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold, fare next year? Will Louisiana voters forgive Sen. David Vitter for his prostitution scandal and re-elect him to a second term? And, is Majority Leader Harry Reid vulnerable in Nevada, especially since defeated Rep. Jon Porter is now available to offer a strong challenge? Just when you thought it was over…

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IT’S ELECTION DAY

At long last, the historic 2008 election cycle comes to an end tonight. Though counting will continue for hours as polls in Alaska do not even close until midnight Eastern Standard Time, some districts and states will give us early clues as to how the voting might transpire in the rest of the country.

The first two states to report are Indiana and Kentucky, where most polls close at 6:00 pm eastern (parts of the states are in the Central time zone meaning a 7:00 pm eastern close), and are must wins for John McCain. Even a close vote in Kentucky would be a bad signal nationally for the Republican, as the Blue Grass State is a place he should win comfortably. Kentucky is routinely among the fastest reporting states, so results here will be final relatively early in the evening. Should Barack Obama win Indiana – traditionally Republican, but a domain that has been tight during this campaign – the presidential race would be essentially over as McCain is eliminated if he fails to carry the Hoosier State.

At the congressional level, Indiana has no Senate race but should Fort Wayne Rep. Mark Souder go down to a surprise defeat, expect the Democrats to have as good a night as they expect. The same might be true in Kentucky where the open 2nd district (GOP Rep. Ron Lewis retiring) will likely provide further clues. Should Democrat David Boswell upset state Sen. Brett Guthrie, the rout could be on. Republicans should keep both of these seats, but doing so will not necessarily provide a clear trend as to how the GOP might fare in other places.

On the Senate front, the Kentucky race of Republican Leader Mitch McConnell could become one of the big stories of the night. Should he lose to health care executive Bruce Lunsford, the Democrats will likely attain the filibuster-proof 60 votes they will need to dominate the chamber. The loss of McConnell would be the most devastating of setbacks for the embattled GOP, and one they simply cannot afford to sustain. Late polling, however, predicts McConnell to survive. Should this be the case, the Democrats still have further opportunities in Mississippi and Georgia to notch their 60th, assuming the rest of the country performs as they predict.

At 7:00 pm eastern, Vermont, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida all close. Another critical Senate race occurs in Georgia that may not even be decided tomorrow night. In a campaign expected to be close, should neither Sen. Saxby Chambliss nor challenger Jim Martin reach 50% plus one vote (Libertarian Allen Buckley is also on the ballot), a run-off election will be held December 2nd. Georgia state law requires all elections to be decided with a majority of the votes cast, hence the possibility of a second contest.

Congressional clues can also be found in Virginia and South Carolina. Should Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA) or Henry Brown (R-SC) find themselves in trouble, such would be another sign that Democrats are headed for a huge night. In Florida, if both Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart survive their difficult challenges and Rep. Ric Keller outlast his competitive opponent in Orlando, Republicans will breathe a sigh of relief. These results may be a prelude to national losses in the 20s rather than the 30s.

By 10:00 pm eastern, voting in all but the far West will be complete, revealing what should be clear trends.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

All Fundamentals Point One Way

As we move ever so close to Election Day voters from all walks of life are speculating as to who will win the Presidency, and why. The plethora of professional polls, quoted daily by the news media, unanimously predict a Barack Obama victory this Tuesday, but are there better indicators? Possibly so. Many analysts believe that the political fundamentals point to an Obama win that is even larger than current ballot test numbers might suggest.

In looking at a presidential election, there are a number of activity categories that provide us critical outcome clues. Elements like electoral history, fundraising, ground organization, mood of the country, and confidence in one’s candidate can often better predict the final result than simply observing that a particular candidate consistently records higher scores in head-to-head polling.

Historically, one political party has a difficult time holding the Presidency for more than two consecutive four-year terms, so the fact that Republicans are concluding an eight year run plays to Obama’s advantage. Since Democratic Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman served a combined twenty consecutive years (1933-53) in office, there has been only one other time when a party has exceeded the two-term trend. This singular post-New Deal era dominance occurred during the 80s and early 90s, when Republicans Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush served continuously from 1981 to 1993.

Obama also enjoys substantial advantages in the areas of campaign organization, both financially and on the ground. The Illinois Democrat set a record for presidential fundraising in the 2008 election cycle, raking in over $521 million through the September 30th public disclosure deadline. Being the first candidate to eschew public financing for his general election campaign, a record-setting performance was expected. Every other candidate has raised private money only for the primaries but the Illinois Senator’s overall effort still must be rated as excellent, nonetheless. That being said, the Obama receipts are a whopping 42.3% above those of his 2004 Democratic predecessor, Sen. John Kerry. McCain, on the other hand, ticks above President Bush’s final number by an anemic 0.4%.
In terms of political ground forces, the McCain team did not adopt the Bush emphasis on voter registration, turnout, and volunteer politics. Obama did, and the results are now presenting themselves. In the key battleground state of Nevada, for example, Democratic registration is up over 124,000 people from the 2004 election, while Republicans picked up just 35,000. In Florida, Democratic registration has outpaced the GOP’s total 600,000 to 200,000. In New Hampshire, another small but important swing state, 35,000 new Democrats joined the registration roles versus just 1,000 Republicans, and in Pennsylvania the gap between Ds and Rs is now 4.5 million to 3.2 million.

The mood of the country also favors Obama and the Democrats, which could be the most telling factor of all. With all polls suggesting that the national “right direction/wrong track” sentiment is overwhelmingly negative (some polls show that less than 10% of Americans believe things are headed in the right direction), the candidate of the party perceived to be in charge has a major obstacle to overcome. Even though the Democrats control both houses of Congress, the public is clearly not attaching any of the downturn blame onto them, so Republicans are bearing the brunt of people’s disapproval. Another telling indicator of future electoral success is monitoring voters’ belief as to who will win the election regardless of their personal preference. By margins of 70% or greater, today’s respondents predict an Obama victory.

Still another fundamental test is measuring the penchant of voters from states that each side must organize into their winning national coalition. Here, John McCain has always had the easier road simply because claiming all 29 states that supported George W. Bush twice would award him the Presidency. Now in the final days of the election, McCain is in serious jeopardy of losing as many as eight of these twenty-nine domains. Even if he scores last minute wins in the critical states of Ohio and Florida, his deficit margins in Colorado and Virginia seem too large to overcome. He is also having trouble in North Carolina, North Dakota, Nevada, and Missouri. Unfortunately, from the McCain perspective, he must win all of the aforementioned states to secure victory since he is not in range to snatch any of the weaker Democratic states.

Added together, these fundamental measures suggest a win for Barack Obama that exceeds the pollsters projections. On Tuesday night, we will find out for sure.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

SENATE: DEMOCRATS DRIVE TOWARD 60

In at least one way, the closing days of the 2008 Senatorial campaign cycle resemble the situation from the final campaign weekend of two years ago. With Democrats putting to bed early what were once close races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Rhode Island, it became clear that they needed three of the remaining four states – Virginia, Montana, Missouri, and Tennessee – to capture the Senate majority. With only the Volunteer State’s Bob Corker winning for the Republicans on election night ‘06, the Democrats achieved their goal.

Since retaining the majority is not in question for the current election, a new objective is apparently within the Democrats’ grasp. Winning four of the final group of six competitive states on Tuesday means attaining a 60-seat super majority, and with it total control of the legislative branch of government.

Counting the three open Republican seats in Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado surely to go Democratic along with two incumbents that are seriously behind in Alaska and New Hampshire, a further pair of GOP Senators, Gordon Smith (Oregon) and Elizabeth Dole (North Carolina), also could fall but statistically remain alive. Two polls have Smith ahead by one and four points, while two other surveys show Democrat Jeff Merkley up by five and seven points. Turning to the Tar Heel State, one poll puts Sen. Dole ahead by four points, while two surveys place Democrat Kay Hagan in the lead by six points, one other posts the Democrat to a four point advantage, two have her ahead three, and two more show only a one point Hagan edge.

In the next grouping, Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman has battled back to gain a small lead in his three-way race against Saturday Night Live comedian Al Franken and Independent candidate Dean Barkley according to the most recent polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports (43-39%) and NBC/Mason Dixon (42-36%). Barkley was in low double-digits in both surveys. A strong final debate performance from Coleman and various lawsuits alleging illegal corporate payments to the Senator’s wife and a defamation claim filed against Franken are the final twists in what has been a brutal and long lasting campaign.

Other close races involve appointed Republican Sen. Roger Wicker in Mississippi, where he is fending off a tough challenge from defeated former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. Late polling shows Wicker opening up a larger lead, but a
huge African American turnout in a state with the largest black population in the country certainly spells trouble for any Republican.

Sen. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia is not only fighting the negative Republican brand, but also the self-imposed effects of voting for a massive farm bill, a path to citizenship for illegal aliens, and the Wall Street bailout. These positions have put him at odds with his conservative base and in close competition with former state Human Resources Commissioner Jim Martin. The race is further complicated by the state’s general election run-off law. If no candidate receives an absolute majority on election night, a second election will be held on December 2nd. With an independent candidate on the ballot and polling showing only a slight Chambliss lead, the first-place finisher scoring less than 50% is a distinct possibility.

Finally, the contest featuring Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and health care executive Bruce Lunsford continues to show some viability for the Democrats. McConnell leads in all four public polls taken since October 20th, from two to seven points. The latest survey, from Rasmussen Reports taken two days ago shows the four-term Senator with a 51-44% advantage.

At this point, it appears the Democrats have a very reasonable chance of reaching 58 seats and hit 60 by taking a combination of any two states in the final Minnesota, Mississippi, Georgia, and Kentucky grouping. Tuesday will finally tell the tale.

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Still a Race, or Not?

While several national survey research firms are reporting a tightening of the national presidential polling numbers to as few as three points, a landslide Electoral College result in Barack Obama’s favor is still the likely conclusion of the 2008 campaign. With John McCain now out of the running in every traditional Democratic state in addition to the three swing states from the past two elections — Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire — also soundly in his column, McCain’s only chance of victory is to carry all 29 states that George W. Bush won twice. McCain’s problem, however, is that he’s within the margin of error or behind in seven of the twenty-nine. Trailing outside the polling variance in Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio, and behind slightly in Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and North Dakota, McCain must rebound in every instance to eek out a two-vote Electoral College win. There is only a slight chance that his fortunes could turn so completely around in each of the seven cases. Though the national vote could get closer, the state count, as we all remember from the 2000 election, is what matters and Obama’s ability to clinch 270 Electoral Votes seems assured now less than one week away from the final vote.

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THE LATEST COUNTS

With less than one week remaining in the election cycle, Democrats are within shouting distance of capturing 60 Senate seats. The conviction of Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens on seven counts of federal corruption means this state is headed for the Democratic column in the person of Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Factoring in the open seats of Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado deserting the GOP, the Ds are virtually assured of 55 seats. Should current trends continue in campaigns against Republican incumbents in Oregon, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, the new majority will climb to 58. Sixty then becomes possible by winning two of the four close races in North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi and Kentucky. The coveted 60 votes will theoretically allow the Democratic leadership to break any filibuster; a power they haven’t held since the Carter Administration.

In the House, it appears that at least 12 GOP seats and three Democratic districts are poised to switch parties. Four incumbent Republicans – Don Young in Alaska, Colorado’s Marilyn Musgrave, Joe Knollenberg of Michigan, and Tom Feeney from Florida – all appear to be in serious jeopardy of losing. This coupled with eight open Republican seats going the other way gives the Ds their first dozen pick-ups. Three Democrats, Reps. Tim Mahoney (FL-16), Nick Lampson (TX-22), and Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), are in similarly poor shape and could well lose their districts to Republican challengers. Assuming all of these projections are correct, the Democrats would net nine seats from the “likely conversion” category.

The secondary, or “possible conversion”, sect will determine the expanse of the Democratic gain. In this grouping we find 25 additional Republican seats, including ten open districts. Among some of the incumbents listed here are Reps. Robin Hayes (NC-8), Tim Walberg (MI-7), Randy Kuhl (NY-29), and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25). Seven Democratic districts are also a part of this category, all incumbent seats with the exception of the open AL-5 (Bud Cramer retiring). Three of the vulnerable Democratic incumbents are Reps. Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1), Steve Kagen (WI-8), and John Murtha (PA-12) who is a new entry. Republicans just losing half of their 25 possible conversion seats and even picking off two of the seven Democrats will still send their net losses over the 20 mark, reducing them to the 170’s for the first time since the mid-1990’s.

Another eighteen Republican seats – for example, those of Reps. Jean Schmidt (OH-2), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21), and Sam Graves (MO-6), are considered “competitive”. In order to avoid a Democratic tsunami, Republicans must hold onto all of these districts. Only four D seats are a part of this cluster.

The final category features districts where the incumbent party is favored to win. There, another 23 Republican seats reside, including nine more open seats. All of the GOP seats in this category without a returning incumbent are projected to remain Republican. Seventeen seats here are Democratic, and all are expected to again elect their party’s standard bearer on November 4th.

In all, 109 seats registering some level of competition are included in this latest count — a huge number for a house that normally re-elects more than 98% of its incumbents. At this writing it appears the Democrats can reasonably expect to gain in the 22-25 seat range.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

Newspaper Readership Nosedives

The Audit Bureau of Circulation, the newspaper industry’s official reporting entity, released its figures for the six-month period ending in September and major reductions in daily circulation in all 25 of the largest markets were again recorded. Nationally, the average annualized rate of decline among the 507 reporting newspapers was a whopping 4.6%. The largest drop was in Atlanta, where the Journal-Constitution, owned by the Cox Corporation, fell 13.6%, meaning that only 274,999 homes subscribe to the paper of more than 5.28 million people in the metro area, just 8.3% of area households. The Houston Chronicle was down 11.6% and their Sunday subscriptions retracted an even larger 15.7%. Other double-digit losers were the Miami Herald (11.8%), the Philadelphia Inquirer (11.0%), the Boston Globe (10.1%), and the Detroit News (10.0%). The New York Times reaches now just over 1 million subscribers, or just 8.5% of the homes in the New York metropolitan area. The two gainers were both national newspapers. The Wall Street Journal remained constant for the period, up about 117 sales per day. USA Today was also slightly up. Both publications sell over 2 million copies every 24 hour period. These trends again signal fundamental changes in the way Americans obtain their news of current events and politics.