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Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

PRIMARY NEWS

With two congressional primaries scheduled to be finalized by the end of the day – AK-AL (Rep. Don Young vs. Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell) and AZ-5 (David Schweikert vs. Susan Bitter Smith), the last set of primaries are about to be held.

Originally, the Louisiana contests were supposed to commence tomorrow, but Gov. Bobby Jindal has issued an executive order postponing the election until Sept. 13th due to the aftermath of Hurricane Gustav. Two Bayou State races are of significance. In the New Orleans-based 2nd district, Rep. Bill Jefferson, still under indictment for bribery, seeks yet another term. Just as was the case two years ago, a slate of Democrats ran to unseat him, but Jefferson was able to survive thanks to a run-off election. This year he has six opponents, and the same scenario could result. Look for Jefferson to be forced into a run-off, but the Democrats will hold the seat in November regardless of what happens October 4th.

In the Shreveport area (4th district), Rep. Jim McCrery is retiring. District Attorney Paul Carmouche will likely win the Democratic congressional primary outright, avoiding the second election in October. The Republicans will likely have to go to the run-off, as three strong candidates are vying for the party nomination. McCrery openly supports attorney and former local Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson. He is being challenged by businessman Chris Gorman and Dr. John Fleming, a former county coroner. Both Gorman and Fleming are investing more than $500,000 of their own resources into their campaigns, thereby doubling the amount of money that Thompson has been able to raise. Though the GOP has held this seat since 1988, Carmouche and the Democrats will likely have a month’s head start in the general election and, with the component of having a 33% African American population, the projected super-charged black turnout could certainly be a factor in November. Look for a close race to transpire.

On Tuesday, eight states are holding primary elections, but in only two are there serious contests. The long-awaited for NH-1 duel between former Rep. Jeb Bradley and ex-NH House and Human Services Director John Stephen will be decided on Sept. 9th. The eventual Republican winner has a strong chance of re-claiming this seat, as incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is one of the most vulnerable of the freshman Democrats. Two polls show Bradley actually leading the incumbent, with Stephen also in position to win.

In New York, the most interesting primary battle is in the Democratic side of the 26th district — the Buffalo-Rochester seat of the retiring Rep. Tom Reynolds. The Party is backing Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, but two-time nominee Jack Davis, the man responsible for the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the famed “millionaire’s amendment” in the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law, certainly has the money and name identification to win the primary. Businessman Chris Lee is the consensus Republican pick and he will start the general election as the favorite regardless of which Democrat wins.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

Alaska House Race Still Without a Winner

The much anticipated Republican congressional primary for Alaska’s lone seat in the House of Representatives ended early Wednesday morning with no declared winner. Embattled 35-year incumbent Don Young led Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell by 145 votes of over 100,000 ballots cast, but some tallies from the state’s rural region must still be counted. Nine precincts and as many as 4,000 absentee ballots await tabulating in order to determine which Republican will face Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz, who cruised to victory in his primary, garnering more than 53% against two opponents. Though Young may yet pull out the victory, he will come nowhere close to receiving even a majority vote within his own party. In addition to Parnell, state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux also ran and pulled over 8,000 votes and 9.2%. Adding her total to Parnell’s, more than 55% of Republicans rejected their scandal-tainted incumbent. Should Young win in the next few days, surveys say he will be a decided underdog against Berkowitz, meaning that his long congressional career is on the threshold of ending. These same polls show Parnell comfortably ahead of Berkowitz, so if the absentee votes turn the election to his favor, the GOP will have a good chance of holding the seat. The outcome of the contested Young-Parnell battle will likely identify the November winner, too.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

PARNELL CLINGS TO A LEAD

Congressional primary elections were held in Alaska and Florida last night, and as the wee hours of the morning dawn in the Last Frontier, another incumbent teeters on the brink of primary defeat. GOP Rep. Don Young, a 35-year congressional veteran who is embroiled in an earmarking scandal over a Florida transportation project, trails Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell by 142 votes with 89% of the ballots counted. Parnell has 45.5% of the vote to Young’s 45.3%. State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, who could end up being a spoiler for Parnell, is taking 9.2%. The vote has been close all night, with Young consistently under 50% since counting began. This tells us that even if he pulls out a win in the final counties and precincts, his chances of ultimate victory in November are dim. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz captured 55% in the Democratic primary last night, and is now the official nominee. Polls show that if Parnell holds on, he would become an immediate general election favorite.

In the Alaska Senate race, indicted 40-year incumbent Ted Stevens, just as polling predicted, was scoring 63% in the Republican primary against six opponents. He will now face Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who captured an overwhelming 85% of the vote last night. This is one of the Democrats’ prime conversion opportunities, and Begich begins the general in a strong favorite’s position.

The Florida primary was also last night, and the results lead to at least nine competitive general election congressional races in the state’s 25 districts. The biggest surprise of the night came in the 8th district (Orlando-Ocoee-Cooway) where four-term incumbent Rep. Ric Keller scored only 53% in winning re-nomination against attorney Todd Long with both candidates spending in the $400,000 range. Keller won a close 53-46% general election victory two years ago in a changing district that is trending away from the Republicans. A bit of a surprise occurred on the Democratic side, too, as ’06 nominee Charlie Stuart, who enjoyed the support of the entire Democratic establishment statewide and locally, went down to a sizable defeat against attorney Alan Grayson. Grayson, who largely financed his own campaign, spent over $1 million and won 48-27%. He is clearly the most liberal of all the Democrats and is to the left of the average 8th district voter, so that should help Keller. Still, this result cannot be considered as good news for the incumbent Republican who is breaking his original term limits pledge in order to seek a 5th term in the House.

In other Florida races, businessman Tom Rooney, an heir to the Pittsburgh Steelers football team, won the GOP primary in the 16th district (Jupiter-Port Charlotte-Port St. Lucie). He defeated state Rep. Gayle Harrell and local city Councilman Hal Valeche in what was a close three-way race. Rooney will now become one of the nation’s top challengers as he now faces freshman Rep. Tim Mahoney who was a one-point winner two years ago, replacing the scandal-ridden Rep. Mark Foley. John McCain is likely to rack up a sizable majority in this district, thus making the 16th a top Republican conversion opportunity.

As expected, in the 15th district (Rep. Dave Weldon retiring), state Senator Bill Posey took a huge 77% in the Republican primary against three other candidates and is a prohibitive favorite to retain the seat in November. He will pair up with physician Steve Blythe, who garnered 65% in the Democratic primary.

In another Orlando area seat that will be competitive in the fall, three-term Rep. Tom Feeney was easily re-nominated with 77% of the vote. He will take on former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, who scored 72% against 2006 nominee Clint Curtis.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

Big Alaska and Florida Primaries Tonight

Right in the midst of the Democratic National Convention, two major primaries are scheduled. In Alaska, a pair of scandal-ridden Republican veterans are again on the ballot, one of whom could lose tonight. Indicted Sen. Ted Stevens is expected to easily win his intra-party contest against several unknowns, but will have a difficult time in the general election against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. In the state’s heavily contested lone congressional race, scandal-tainted 18-term Rep. Don Young faces his most competitive primary ever against Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux may score enough anti-Young votes to allow the incumbent to win renomination with only a plurality. The winner will face former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz. Even if he survives tonight, polls show that Young’s chances of returning to the next Congress are weak. In Florida, the GOP will choose a nominee to face freshman Rep. Tim Mahoney in one of the more Republican districts that fell into Democratic hands during the last election. Attorney Tom Rooney, heir to the Pittsburgh Steelers football fortune, local city Councilman Hal Valeche, and state Rep. Gayle Harrell vie for the GOP nomination. The winner will have a strong chance of unseating Mahoney in November.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

OBAMA-BIDEN vs. McCAIN-?

Now that Barack Obama has chosen Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate, all eyes turn to John McCain. Upon seeing the complete Democratic ticket, how will the Arizona Senator use to the fullest the advantage of picking after Obama?

The first question that needs answering is when will McCain make his selection public? With the Democrats commanding all the attention this week as their national convention begins today, will McCain try to steal some of their limelight and announce his own pick? Probably not. Between Hillary Clinton’s name being placed in nomination and Obama’s acceptance speech before 75,000 screaming supporters at Denver’s Invesco Field, a McCain Vice-Presidential nominee will get less attention than if the announcement is delayed a week. Secondly, with the Republican convention coming just four days after the Democrats conclude, beginning with Labor Day and ending with the Arizona Senator giving his national address opposite the first nationally telecast NFL football game of the season, the Republicans will need a more newsworthy event to attract major coverage despite the convention getting underway. Announcing the VP pick as people are gathering in Minneapolis would fill the bill, thus it would be smart to conduct the public unveiling sometime during the Saturday to Tuesday timeframe.

That being the case, just who will McCain choose? Obama clearly decided to shore up a personal weakness instead of taking someone that would help win a particular swing state. Biden’s 36 years of congressional experience certainly helps blunt the criticism of the presidential nominee not having enough, and the Delaware Senator’s years as a member, and chairman, of the Foreign Relations Committee brings the Democratic ticket some badly needed foreign policy credentials.

Among the people still in consideration for the GOP slot, only former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney brings McCain some economic bona fides, an area of self-proclaimed weakness for the Arizonan. He would also help the Republican nominee in two states, New Hampshire and Michigan, both of which supported John Kerry over George W. Bush in 2004 but appear to be close in this election. Winning both of these places would go a long way to electing McCain President. Romney was not a strong vote-getter in the south, but recent polling numbers suggest that McCain will perform well in this all-important Republican region so that is probably not a disqualifying negative for his former presidential campaign opponent.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

OBAMA 264 - McCAIN 261

The Electoral College map is tightening. With daily national tracking polls having shown the presidential race to be within a point or two for several weeks, the all-important state count is predictably coming around to reflect a similar view.

Such a movement is not particularly surprising. As summer begins to wind down and people return to a more normal work and school routine, the Democratic lead dissipates and the Republicans gain ground. Hence, the normal modern day electoral pattern has begun. In every election since 1972, the Democrats enjoyed a lead in summer-time polling only to see their advantage dwindle after Labor Day. Certain things are happening in this campaign, however, that suggest the 2008 race may be even closer than normal – a rather eye-opening statement when considering just how tight the last two presidential contests have been.

According to published national polling from all 50 states in August, Barack Obama’s electoral vote lead has slipped to only four, as John McCain has rallied to relative parity. Obama leads in 20 states and the District of Columbia for 264 EVs, while McCain claims 30 states for 261 votes. The Commonwealth of Virginia (13 Electoral Votes), as it has now for several polling cycles, shows a dead heat with each candidate posting even strength according to several polling firms.

But the interesting thing about this latest map is the large number of states that seem to be in play. A full 25 domains are within single digits, eleven of which are within the statistical polling margin of error (less than 5 points). The other half of the country appears to be definitively supporting their candidate. In this solid group, Obama holds ten states and the District of Columbia for 134 electoral votes and McCain posts 15 possessing 131 EVs. Over 40% of the votes in Obama’s strong state assembly comes from one place, California, with its 55 electoral votes. McCain is closing the gap because traditionally Republican states that have been flirting with Obama appear to be coming back into his fold. Though they are all part of the contingent of most closely contested states, (from west to east) Alaska, Nevada, Montana, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, Ohio, and Florida are all now marginally in the McCain camp according to the August data.

Also, It is in this “battleground” category where McCain is most vulnerable. Of the eleven states where polling shows the two candidates to be within margins of less than five points, McCain has the slightest of leads in eight of the places (NV, CO, MT, ND, SD, OH, NC, FL) and Obama two (MN, NH). Virginia is tied.

Obama’s most important category contains the competitive states – those places polling between five and nine percentage points. Of the fourteen states currently in this group, Obama claims nine (OR, NM, IA, WI, MI, PA, NY, NJ, DE) for 116 electoral votes, and McCain five (AK, MO, IN, WV, GA) for 45 EV’s. The fact that Oregon, New York, New Jersey, and Delaware are only within high single digits for the Democrat is another surprise.

The latest polling confirms that the Obama-McCain race is likely to be a razor-thin contest, and that more states are fluid than in the last two presidential elections. When recalling that only three states changed their votes during the two Bush elections we realize that this campaign is headed for a most intriguing conclusion.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

Three new polls show movement for McCain

Three separate polls, one nationally and two in key states, just released yesterday, all show movement for John McCain. According to the LA Times/Bloomberg national poll of 1,248 registered voters over August 15-18, McCain has pulled to within a 45-43% deficit against Barack Obama. This represents a net move of ten points in the Republican’s direction (Obama losing four points; McCain gaining six) when comparing the results to their June poll.

In Indiana, a state that has produced troublesome data for McCain ever since it became clear that Obama and the Arizonan would face each other in the general election, found a reversal of fortunes in the latest Survey USA poll. Over the period of August 16-18, questioning 645 likely voters, McCain claimed a 50-44% lead over Obama, the first time he has held such an advantage in the Hoosier State.

Finally, according to Rasmussen Reports, the Florida electorate is also choosing McCain, by a close 48-46% margin. This data came on August 18th, after interviewing 500 likely voters. Florida polling has been see-sawing between the two men for a number of weeks.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

Rasmussen: Media Bias Problematic

Rasmussen Reports’ (RR) just published an August 8th national poll of 1,000 voters that shows some stunning results when comparing feelings about media bias to the perceived influence of lobbyists and campaign contributors. A full 55% of those polled stated that media bias in the coverage of elections is a more serious problem than people attempting to exert influence in return for campaign contributions. Thirty-six percent said obtaining favors was the greater negative. Self-identified conservatives overwhelmingly held the former view. Seventy-four percent of the more traditionally-oriented sector of this particular polling universe said that media bias was more destructive than returning favors for contributions versus only 47% of liberals who held a similar position. Only 22% of the sampling universe felt that candidates’ television ads should be banned outright, thus ceding campaign message control to the media. Sixty-six percent favored staying with the current system of allowing the candidates to promote their own messages. In a related RR survey conducted during a similar time frame, cable news viewers apparently do choose their candidates in accord with the perceived partisan preferences of their network. For example, 87% of Fox News viewers professed a desire to vote for John McCain. This compares to 65% of CNN patrons and 63% of MSNBC loyalists who pledged support for Barack Obama.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

THE AUGUST FIREWORKS

Rep. David Davis (R-TN) losing his renomination campaign, former Rep. Jim Ryun denied a political comeback in Kansas, and Detroit Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-MI) surviving with less than 40% in her Democratic primary are clear indications that the political volatility of 2008 has not subsided. Tomorrow’s primary in the 5th district of Colorado is yet another example of an incumbent trying to repel a stiff intra-party challenge and a close result is expected.

On August 7th, in Tennessee’s unique Thursday primary, freshman Rep. Davis fell to Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe by 486 votes of 51,827 ballots cast. Davis won the seat two years ago, securing just 22% in a crowded ten-person primary. Roe, a candidate then too, finished third. Without a run-off procedure in Tennessee, Davis captured the nomination with the small plurality and easily went on to win the general election in the safe Republican seat. Roe’s aggressive challenge this time, in effect, produced the run-off from the ‘06 contest, but two years later. Davis failed to solidify the expanded Republican base, particularly in the most populous northeastern sector of the district, losing to Roe 55.3-44.2% in the Johnson City, Kingsport, Elizabethton, and Bristol area. The one-term Congressman claimed eight of TN-1’s twelve counties and took the smaller central and southern portions of the district by a mirror-like percentage to Roe’s support in the larger areas, but his inability to deflect negative attacks resulted in a close loss. Roe stung Davis with an accusation that the Congressman was a pawn of Big Oil, and incumbent failed to turn the tables on the challenger for not supporting increased energy production.

Rep. Cheeks, in her Michigan campaign, saw more than 60% of her party’s voters oppose her but won because she had multiple opponents. A similar ballot set-up in Colorado could help freshman Rep. Doug Lamborn hold his seat tomorrow.

The 5th district of Colorado is a safely Republican seat anchored in the Colorado Springs metropolitan area. The 2006 retirement of 20-year congressional veteran Joel Hefley produced a nasty GOP primary that didn’t end with Lamborn’s close victory over former Hefley chief of staff Jeff Crank and retired Air Force General Bentley Rayburn among others. Almost immediately, Crank and Rayburn continued their respective campaigns, and the results of their efforts will be known tomorrow.

For most of the time, the current campaign has featured attacks being waged between Lamborn and Crank. Gen. Rayburn, who many believe is the best qualified of the candidates, has attempted to stay above the fray and come up on the outside, winning votes from people that the other two have alienated. Campaign spending is at relative parity — with Lamborn having about a $150,000 edge — as everyone has topped $300,000 in receipts. All are campaigning as conservatives, so the race will likely be decided upon personality. Lamborn seems to have enough of a base to again place first but, like Kilpatrick, with less than a majority of the votes cast. No polling data has been released, which indicates that neither of the challengers has numbers placing them ahead of the incumbent. Additionally, Crank was recently dealt a serious blow. The Colorado Springs Chamber of Commerce, an organization for which the candidate served as Vice-President and that supported him in 2006, endorsed Lamborn.

Colorado also hosts two other important congressional primary open seat contests, and party voters from both districts will almost assuredly choose their next Congressman tomorrow. In the 2nd district, the Boulder area seat of Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO; running for Senate), a lavishly expensive Democratic battle is coming to culmination. All three of the top contenders, former state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, ex-Board of Education Chairman and businessman Jared Polis, and Colorado conservation trust fund director Will Shafroth have each raised in excess of $1 million. Polis, by virtue of dropping $5.3 million of his own money into the campaign will spend well over $6 million. The race seems to be between Fitz-Gerald, commonly viewed as the favorite, and Polis, who is relying on many former elected officials to carry his message. Politicians like ex-Colorado Rep. Pat Schroeder, former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, and even deposed California Gov. Gray Davis are actively supporting Polis, and he is a factor because of his overwhelming financial resources and the credibility of his support team. Shafroth, armed with endorsements from the Denver Post and Rocky Mountain News, is, like Rayburn in the 5th district, trying to stay above the fighting and come up on the outside for a win, attracting voters disgusted with the other two. The winner will be a member of the 111th Congress as the 2nd is a safely Democratic seat.

Further south, in the Denver suburban 6th district being vacated by the retiring Rep. Tom Tancredo, two GOP heavy weights are also waging an intense battle for their party’s nomination, which is tantamount to election in the fall. Secretary of State Mike Coffman and mortgage banker Wil Armstrong, son of former US Senator and Congressman Bill Armstrong, appear to be locked in a close battle. State Senators Ted Harvey and Steve Ward are also actively campaigning, but the race appears to be between Coffman, who claims to be leading the race, and Armstrong. Even the Armstrong campaign released the results of their tracking polls showing their candidate trailing Coffman by two points, but with clear momentum for the first-time candidate. Coffman has been strong from the outset, but the party establishment, featuring former Gov. Bill Owens, Sen. Wayne Allard, Attorney General John Suthers, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, former Rep. Scott McInnis, and even defeated presidential candidate Mitt Romney, have all lined up behind Armstrong. Both candidates will break $1.1 million in spending. This race is considered a toss-up.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

OR-Sen: Gordon Smith Breathing Easier

The state of Oregon is a tough political place for any Republican, so it is no surprise that two-term Sen. Gordon Smith finds himself in a tight re-election contest with Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Smith was originally viewed as a distinct 2008 favorite, because the Democratic leadership failed three times to recruit a candidate with statewide name ID and stature. Since Merkley defeated businessman Steve Novick in the May 20th Democratic primary, however, his standing against Smith in various public polls has been quite favorable. In fact, a Rasmussen Reports (RR) July 15th poll, for the first time, actually showed Merkley holding a two-point, 43-41% lead over the incumbent, which attracted some notable media attention and sent the Smith forces scrambling. A new just completed Survey USA poll (Aug 2-4), with a larger sample size than Rasmussen’s (629 to 500), shows the Senator rebounding to a 49-37% lead over the Democratic House Speaker. Though this still suggests that Merkley’s chances for an upset victory are realistic because Smith never breaks 50%, the SUSA data is more consistent with other statewide surveys than the previous RR mid-July poll. The Oregon Senate race is a must win for the GOP, considering they are way behind in two Republican open seats (Virginia and New Mexico), have problems in Alaska (Sen. Ted Stevens’ indictment), and must protect seven other tenuous seats while having only one legitimate offensive opportunity (Louisiana).