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MINNESOTA GETTING CRAZY

The Minnesota Supreme Court issued a rather strange ruling late last week concerning the state’s undecided US Senate contest. According to the court, it is now incumbent upon the two candidates, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken, to agree upon which rejected absentee ballots are added back into the count after each voter’s preference is known.

One associate justice, former Minnesota Vikings All-Pro defensive lineman Alan Page, joined the dissent. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Justice Page wrote that the two candidates “are likely to be more concerned with their own election prospects than with protecting the absentee voter’s right to vote.”

The process, which began when the Election Night count determined Sen. Coleman to have a 725 vote lead, has no end in sight. The hand-counting of almost three million ballots is complete, and the candidates’ combined challenges of 4,600+ votes are being individually reviewed by the state Recount Canvassing Board. With the board proceeding through and ruling upon each individual challenge, Franken claimed the lead for the first time as last week drew to a close. Though the Democrat’s advantage is now 262, after Coleman peaked with a 458-vote margin, the single-vote rulings relentlessly grind forward. Franken attorney Marc Elias expects that the final challenge count, when the canvassing board finally finishes its work (possibly as early as today), will show his client maintaining a statewide lead of between 35 and 50 votes. The Republicans dispute that analysis.

A major issue for the Coleman campaign is their claim that more than 150 Franken votes have been double-counted. The canvassing board referred that complaint to the judiciary and the Supreme Court will hear those arguments tomorrow. The overriding issue, and the basis for the aforementioned high court decision, concerns more than 1,600 absentee ballots that apparently have been improperly disqualified. It is these ballots over which the court is telling the two candidates’ to come to an agreement. Only with the assent of both campaigns will even one of the disputed votes be added to the statewide count. Naturally, ballots that remain contested will have to be considered by a court.

With seemingly no official body willing to make a binding ruling, any final result could still be weeks away. Once the state finally determines a winner, the loser will undoubtedly file a lawsuit to overturn the decision. But the candidates are
not the only ones who can petition for a legal remedy. Any voter whose ballot has been barred will also have the right to file a legal challenge in order to determine why their individual vote is disqualified.

For his part, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, realizing that the seat will be vacant for a time after the new Congress officially begins in early January, is saying he will appoint a temporary Senator until the winner is finally determined. Senate leaders, who maintain that only they have the right to seat their own members, argue that Pawlenty has no authority to appoint a temporary replacement. They say the Senate will not vote to seat a gubernatorial appointment since the reason for the vacancy is an undecided election. Other constitutional authorities disagree. They contend the Senate’s role in seating members is to ensure that the person possessing an official certificate of election was chosen by a legal and fair voting process and not to judge the personal or political qualifications of any duly-appointed individual.

Without election and judicial authorities making decisions to resolve the critical recount issues, expect this situation to continue for several more weeks unless the two candidates come to some sort of agreement. Realistically, such a concurrence, meaning that one of the two virtually concedes defeat, is unlikely to happen. Now entering the seventh week of the post-election period, the Minnesota Senate race is still too close to call.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

IL SENATE DEBACLE/EARLY POLLING

The corruption indictment and subsequent arrest of Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D-Chicago) means that President-Elect Barack Obama’s former Senate seat will remain vacant for some time. With circumstances surrounding the filling of the Senate seat being one point of the indictment – Blagojevich was literally trying to sell the office to the highest bidder – the disgraced Governor’s ability to appoint someone is virtually neutralized. Though Blagojevich appears set on continuing in office while fighting the legal action – aides say he will be back in his office today – no serious political person will now accept such an appointment because of the scandal. Additionally, the Senate’s majority leadership, including Illinois’ other Senator, Dick Durbin who serves as Assistant Majority Leader, are saying that no Blagojevich appointee will be seated.

In a news conference yesterday, Durbin suggested – and claimed he had already engaged in conversations with key state officials about this point – that the legislature should pass a law calling for a special election to fill the seat. The problem with this strategy is that Blagojevich would have to sign such a bill. Impeachment proceedings against the Governor may get underway when the new legislature convenes in January, but the process will most likely take weeks to complete. The state’s Lt. Governor, Democrat Patrick Quinn, would assume the Governorship should Blagojevich step down or be forced out.

In Illinois, candidates for Lt. Governor run independently of the gubernatorial candidate in the party primaries, but join the ticket upon nomination. Hence, Quinn was elected with Blagojevich, but the two are not particularly close. Should he, as a new Governor, make an eventual appointment, it is unclear whether or not the interim Senator would be tainted with some negative after-effects of the current Administration’s nasty scandal. It is fair to say that the regular Senate election cycle in the Land of Lincoln will be more competitive than originally projected.

Survey USA and Research 2000 have released some December polling that shows low favorability ratings for Senators of both parties. In California, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, normally viewed as the state’s most popular politician only registers a 49:43% positive to negative score on job approval (SUSA 12/8). Feinstein is said to be considering a race for Governor, as Republican incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited. The state’s junior Senator, Barbara Boxer, who may end up facing the actor-turned-politician in her battle for re-election in 2010, is seeing her normally positive ratings turn negative. Boxer’s numbers in the same Survey USA poll showed her favorability ratio at 43:44%.

Not surprisingly, in a state that is known for close elections, Missouri Sen. Kit Bond will face another difficult challenge in 2010, according to a new Research 2000 poll taken during the December 2-4 period. In a hypothetical ballot test, Bond leads Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 47-43%. The Senator’s favorability rating is 49% positive and 43% negative, and Carnahan has a 48:26% positive ratio. There is speculation that Sen. Bond, who will be 71 at the time of the next election, could retire.

Yet another tight political campaign is again being forecast for Ohio. Sen. George Voinovich, a former two-term Governor and Mayor of Cleveland, would be locked in a tough re-election campaign with a series of potential Democratic challengers. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, US Reps. Tim Ryan and Betty Sutton, Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman, and Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson all currently poll within the margin of error against Voinovich. The Senator’s approval rating stands at 46:44% positive to negative, which is seemingly average for incumbents at this particular point in time. Ohio’s junior Senator, Sherrod Brown, as another example, scores a 43:43% in the same favorability poll. Brown will not face the voters again until 2012, however.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

CHAMBLISS WINS & MARTINEZ WILL RETIRE

Georgia Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss coasted to re-election in the state’s general election run-off contest last night, beating former state Human Resources Commissioner Jim Martin 57.5 - 42.5% with almost all precincts reporting. The margin of victory was much wider than expected, though all polls in the post-November 4th period pegged Chambliss with at least a small lead. Approximately 2.1 million people turned out for yesterday’s subsequent election that featured all statewide and district candidates who did not score absolute majorities in the general election. A Public Service Commissioner post and seven judicial offices were also filled.

The turnout figure represents more than 36.3% of Georgia’s registered voters. On November 4th, in what proved to be a record statewide voter participation level, 65.1% of those qualified cast ballots in the original Chambliss-Martin Senate race. More than half of those voters, 55.6%, returned to take part in the run-off election. Chambliss won 123 of the state’s 149 counties and racked up numbers more typically seen for a Republican candidate in what is usually a reliable state for the GOP.

Strategically, Chambliss ran a simple and effective run-off campaign. Concentrating heavily on the tax issue, the Senator ended a series of television and radio commercials with the tag line, “I’ll vote to cut your taxes. Jim Martin will vote to raise your taxes.” Martin campaigned wholly on President-Elect Barack Obama’s agenda, pledging to be a strong supporter of the new Democratic Administration if chosen to serve in the Senate. Obama sent political staff to Georgia and cut radio ads for Martin, but eschewed the candidate’s invitation to come south and personally campaign. Chambliss, on the other hand, featured a widely-publicized multi-city tour with Alaska Governor and former GOP Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin during the last few days of the run-off campaign. Chambliss now returns to the Senate for his second six-year term. The seat will next come up for election in 2014.

Just south of Georgia, the Florida Senate race also made some news yesterday. GOP Sen. Mel Martinez, first elected in a razor-thin election in 2004 over former statewide official Betty Castor, announced he will not seek a second term in 2010. Martinez had been consistently plagued with low approval ratings throughout his career as a Senator, thus Florida was widely considered the Democrats’ best pick-up opportunity in the coming election cycle.

The new opening has caused politicians of both parties to begin jockeying for position. Former Gov. Jeb Bush is being mentioned prominently as a leading Republican candidate. Bush is said to be considering the race. Attorney General Bill McCollum, a 20-year congressional veteran and former Senate candidate, could also be in the mix, along with Reps. Adam Putnam, Vern Buchanan and state Senate President Jeff Atwater, along with former state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

The leading Democratic potential candidate appears to be the state’s Chief Financial Officer, an elected position in Florida, Adelaide “Alex” Sink. Just before the Martinez retirement announcement, it appeared that Sink was going to announce her decision not to challenge the Senator, but now with the seat officially open, she has postponed making any statements as to whether or not she will run. Sink is also prominently mentioned as a potential challenger to GOP Gov. Charlie Crist. Other potential Democratic Senatorial candidates are Reps. Alan Boyd, Kendrick Meek, Ron Klein, and possibly Castor’s daughter, 11th district Rep. Kathy Castor.

The Senate opening could set off a chain reaction among the other statewide officeholders, meaning many of the aforementioned candidates in both parties could enter a game of political musical chairs. Bush’s entry on the Republican side, however, would more than likely dissuade other primary challengers. Despite his brother President George W. Bush’s poor ratings nationally and in Florida, Jeb Bush, with 55 and 56% wins in 1998 and 2002, respectively, still maintains a highly positive image in the Sunshine State and may be the party’s best available option.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

SENATE: GEORGIA & MINNESOTA

The Georgia Senate run-off vote occurs tomorrow and the last seven consecutive pre-Thanksgiving polls all show Sen. Saxby Chambliss holding a decided edge over former state Human Resources Commissioner Jim Martin. The latest survey, conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal Daily Kos national blog, pegs the incumbent to a 52-46% advantage (11/23-25; 600 likely voters). Data from three other studies show similar results. The Insider Advantage, in a survey for the Politico newspaper, reveals a 50-47% margin (11/23; 547 likely voters); the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling also has a 52-46% result (11/22-23; 871 likely voters); but the Mellman Group, another Democratic survey research firm, shows a smaller 48-46% Martin deficit (11/21-23; 600 likely voters).

Chambliss placed first in the original general election but registered only 49.76%, just short of the required majority to win the election under Georgia law. The lack of any contender obtaining 50% plus one vote forces a run-off between the top two finishers – in this case, Chambliss and Democratic nominee Martin. The one-term Senator has not trailed in a run-off poll, but turnout for what is equivalent to a special election will be the determining factor. A smaller African American level of participation, which is predicted based upon the early voting trends, will also favor Chambliss. Black turnout reached an all-time high for the November 4th election.

According to Research 2000 data, the Democratic challenger is running ahead in early voting by a 56-44% mark. In the general election, Martin’s advantage among those casting pre-Election Day ballots was 56-39%.

The Democratic candidate and Georgia party leaders had hoped to draw a personal campaign visit from President-Elect Barack Obama, but that failed to materialize. Obama did cut radio commercials for him and sent political staff to the state, but Martin is forced to energize the Democratic troops without the benefit of a presidential-style campaign rally. Both candidates had to deal with a break in campaigning and voter attention during the Thanksgiving holidays, coming just before next Tuesday’s election. Now just one day before the voting, this race continues to post a Lean Republican rating.

In Minnesota, GOP Sen. Norm Coleman won an important administrative victory that probably means he will finish ahead when the hand recount process concludes. The Recount Canvassing Board, made up of five individuals appointed by Democratic Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, voted unanimously not to count the absentee ballots that were previously disallowed because they did not meet legal requirements. Democratic challenger Al Franken petitioned to have all ballots counted, but the commission members rejected his counsel’s argument. in addition to Ritchie himself, two state Supreme Court judges appointed by Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a district judge elected as a non-partisan, and a judicial appointment of former Reform Party Gov. Jesse Ventura comprise the canvassing commission.

More than 86% of the ballots have been counted and Coleman’s lead is up to 282 votes. The two campaigns have officially challenged 5,623 votes. Election officials calculate that Franken will have to win more than 6% of his challenges, assuming Coleman loses all of his objections. The Franken campaign stated that their challenge calculations show the difference between the two candidates will tighten to approximately 73 votes at the end of the process. Many election judges throughout the state, however, are now publicly stating their belief that Coleman will remain on top throughout the counting.

For his part, even if the final recount result favors Coleman, Franken will still have options. He can petition in federal court to overturn the canvassing commission’s absentee ballot ruling, thus potentially putting them back into play. Secondly, the Democratically controlled Senate will have to seat the eventual winner, thus allowing Franken to utilize his partisan advantage within the body itself. Though things are looking brighter for Coleman, this race is still likely to carry on into January.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

2010 is Already Here
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Though it has only been two weeks since the 2008 election cycle drew to a close, certain politicians are already making decisions about their next campaign. In North Carolina, Rep. Heath Shuler, just re-elected to his 11th district seat, is reportedly not ruling out a challenge to freshman Republican Sen. Richard Burr in the next election. Shuler, a former NFL quarterback for the Washington Redskins and New Orleans Saints, attained sports fame when he led the University of Tennessee Volunteers during the 1992 and ’93 football seasons. Politically, he unseated Rep. Charlie Taylor in 2006, and won an easy re-election earlier this month. Just defeated Rep. Nancy Boyda of Kansas is also looking at a Senate race, since incumbent Sen. Sam Brownback has announced he will forego another term in Washington to instead run for Governor. Boyda isn’t ruling out the statewide run, but says she will more likely attempt to regain the congressional seat she just lost to Rep-Elect Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka). With California Rep. Dan Lungren now challenging House Minority Leader John Boehner for the top post in the Republican Conference, his Democratic opponent from the last two elections, physician Bill Durston, is telling supporters that he, too, will run again in 2010. Lungren outlasted Durston 50-44% in northern California’s 3rd congressional district, a significantly weaker performance than his 59-38% victory margin from 2006.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

Governors to Headline Campaigns

The coming political cycle will feature 38 gubernatorial races, of which 18 sitting Governors are barred from seeking re-election. Larger states like California, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will host statewide races absent an incumbent, as will smaller domains such as Wyoming and Hawaii. At least three US Senators are said to be considering running for their state’s chief executive post. Sens. Dianne Feinstein (California), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Texas), and Sam Brownback (Kansas) may each enter an open race for Governor from their respective states. Expect several House members to test the statewide waters as well, such as Reps. Lincoln Davis in Tennessee and Gresham Barrett of South Carolina, while Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ponders a similar path for South Dakota. 2009 will feature two gubernatorial campaigns: Virginia’s open seat because Gov. Tim Kaine is limited to just one term, and New Jersey where Gov. Jon Corzine is eligible to seek a second four years in office. Former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe just announced his intention to run in the Old Dominion. Should he win the contested Democratic primary, his general election opponent will be GOP Attorney General Bob McDonnell, already the consensus Republican candidate. These small-scale presidential-type races have the potential of generating huge interest and will become mini-barometers to rate performance of the new Obama Administration.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

LA-4: THE FINAL GENERAL ELECTION

When Hurricane Gustav blew through Louisiana in early September causing further damage to this weather-ravaged region, Gov. Bobby Jindal decided to change the statewide election schedule. He first moved the original September 6th primary vote to the October 4th second election date. If no nomination run-off was required, the general election occurred as originally planned. If a second primary became necessary, then a December 6th vote was added to the schedule. Two congressional races fell into this latter category, the New Orleans seat of Rep. Bill Jefferson, and the open 4th district located in the northwestern part of the state (Rep. Jim McCrery retiring).

With the indicted Representative Jefferson expected to cruise to another re-election in the heavily Democratic 2nd district, all attention becomes focused on LA-4. The district, anchored by the twin cities of Shreveport and Bossier City, has been in Republican hands since McCrery’s original special election victory back in 1988. Winning that contest with 51%, McCrery would go on to secure nine more terms, only two of which were in the 50 percentile range. He scored 55% in 1990 and 58% in 2006. Rep. McCrery averaged 75% in his seven other elections, despite the district’s African American population soaring to 33%. As is the common knowledge, the black community represents the most loyal of Democratic Party supporters.

In an open situation, LA-4 is difficult to predict. The Democratic nominee is Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche. He was expected to win outright (50% + one vote) in the October primary election, but was forced into a run-off with attorney and retired Army officer Willie Banks, despite the latter having little money. Carmouche then won the run-off eight days ago scoring a 62%-38% victory.

Physician John Fleming is the Republican nominee, out-dueling businessman Chris Gorman 56-44% in the run-off after overcoming a spending deficit of more than $1 million (for the entire nomination cycle). McCrery’s endorsed candidate, Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson, was defeated in the first election, placing third in a tight three-way contest.

In the just-completed election, John McCain notched 59.5% in the 4th district against Barack Obama’s 39.4%. Statewide, McCain’s margin was a similar 59-40%. President Bush also posted a 59% congressional district number here in 2004. Conversely, Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu carried the region in her ’08 Senate battle against state Treasurer John Kennedy. Underperforming her statewide number, Landrieu carried the 4th with 50.3%, as compared to her 52-46% result when measuring the entire Louisiana voting population.

In the congressional race, while McCain was easily the choice of the general election voters, almost 2/3 of the ballot casters chose to vote in the Democratic run-off. A total of 150,171 D-votes were recorded compared to 77,417 tallies for the Republican contest, a number that could suggest a Democratic general election advantage.

Paul Carmouche was originally elected Caddo Parish (Shreveport) DA back in 1978, and has served five consecutive six-year terms. He was once viewed as the congressional favorite, but his somewhat lackluster showing so far added to his controversial image in the black community seems to lessen his December chances. Several years ago in a highly publicized case, Carmouche failed to prosecute police officers for shooting and killing an unarmed African American man as he was walking away from them in a convenience store parking lot. The action was caught on film, yet Carmouche saw no reason to bring charges. Such hard feelings may make it difficult for the DA to generate excitement in the black community, which is essential for any Democrat to win here.

John Fleming is a physician who is making his first run for federal office. A former Webster County coroner, Fleming has practiced medicine for 29 years even earning the 2007 Louisiana Family Doctor of the Year award. He is running as a strong conservative, vocal in his opposition to the series of federal financial bailouts. Fleming largely self-funded his nomination effort, spending personal funds approaching $775,000 of his $1.007 million in total receipts (through Oct. 15).

With both candidates and parties enjoying only certain advantages here, the LA-4 general election promises to be a close battle. With a little over three weeks remaining in the final voting cycle, this race must be rated a pure Toss-up.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

On to 2010!

With the 2008 election cycle all but complete, it’s not too early to look at the many interesting 2010 Senate races that will soon develop. Republicans yet again, despite their huge losses in the last two elections, must defend the greater number of seats. Nineteen GOP Senators stand for re-election in 2010 versus sixteen Democrats, thus minimizing the chances of changing the majority. Questions surround many big names. Will John McCain, at 74 and fresh off his stinging nationwide loss, seek another term in the Senate? Will Sarah Palin enter a special election if Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens is expelled over his federal fraud conviction? Will Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger challenge Sen. Barbara Boxer in California? Who will Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich appoint to succeed President-Elect Barack Obama, and can that person win a full term in 2010? Will new Delaware Gov. Jack Markell’s pick to replace Vice-President-Elect Joe Biden successfully win election in his or her own right? How will McCain’s partner in changing the American electoral system, Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold, fare next year? Will Louisiana voters forgive Sen. David Vitter for his prostitution scandal and re-elect him to a second term? And, is Majority Leader Harry Reid vulnerable in Nevada, especially since defeated Rep. Jon Porter is now available to offer a strong challenge? Just when you thought it was over…

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

IT’S ELECTION DAY

At long last, the historic 2008 election cycle comes to an end tonight. Though counting will continue for hours as polls in Alaska do not even close until midnight Eastern Standard Time, some districts and states will give us early clues as to how the voting might transpire in the rest of the country.

The first two states to report are Indiana and Kentucky, where most polls close at 6:00 pm eastern (parts of the states are in the Central time zone meaning a 7:00 pm eastern close), and are must wins for John McCain. Even a close vote in Kentucky would be a bad signal nationally for the Republican, as the Blue Grass State is a place he should win comfortably. Kentucky is routinely among the fastest reporting states, so results here will be final relatively early in the evening. Should Barack Obama win Indiana – traditionally Republican, but a domain that has been tight during this campaign – the presidential race would be essentially over as McCain is eliminated if he fails to carry the Hoosier State.

At the congressional level, Indiana has no Senate race but should Fort Wayne Rep. Mark Souder go down to a surprise defeat, expect the Democrats to have as good a night as they expect. The same might be true in Kentucky where the open 2nd district (GOP Rep. Ron Lewis retiring) will likely provide further clues. Should Democrat David Boswell upset state Sen. Brett Guthrie, the rout could be on. Republicans should keep both of these seats, but doing so will not necessarily provide a clear trend as to how the GOP might fare in other places.

On the Senate front, the Kentucky race of Republican Leader Mitch McConnell could become one of the big stories of the night. Should he lose to health care executive Bruce Lunsford, the Democrats will likely attain the filibuster-proof 60 votes they will need to dominate the chamber. The loss of McConnell would be the most devastating of setbacks for the embattled GOP, and one they simply cannot afford to sustain. Late polling, however, predicts McConnell to survive. Should this be the case, the Democrats still have further opportunities in Mississippi and Georgia to notch their 60th, assuming the rest of the country performs as they predict.

At 7:00 pm eastern, Vermont, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida all close. Another critical Senate race occurs in Georgia that may not even be decided tomorrow night. In a campaign expected to be close, should neither Sen. Saxby Chambliss nor challenger Jim Martin reach 50% plus one vote (Libertarian Allen Buckley is also on the ballot), a run-off election will be held December 2nd. Georgia state law requires all elections to be decided with a majority of the votes cast, hence the possibility of a second contest.

Congressional clues can also be found in Virginia and South Carolina. Should Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA) or Henry Brown (R-SC) find themselves in trouble, such would be another sign that Democrats are headed for a huge night. In Florida, if both Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart survive their difficult challenges and Rep. Ric Keller outlast his competitive opponent in Orlando, Republicans will breathe a sigh of relief. These results may be a prelude to national losses in the 20s rather than the 30s.

By 10:00 pm eastern, voting in all but the far West will be complete, revealing what should be clear trends.

Political news from Washington with an insider’s and nonpartisan perspective.

All Fundamentals Point One Way

As we move ever so close to Election Day voters from all walks of life are speculating as to who will win the Presidency, and why. The plethora of professional polls, quoted daily by the news media, unanimously predict a Barack Obama victory this Tuesday, but are there better indicators? Possibly so. Many analysts believe that the political fundamentals point to an Obama win that is even larger than current ballot test numbers might suggest.

In looking at a presidential election, there are a number of activity categories that provide us critical outcome clues. Elements like electoral history, fundraising, ground organization, mood of the country, and confidence in one’s candidate can often better predict the final result than simply observing that a particular candidate consistently records higher scores in head-to-head polling.

Historically, one political party has a difficult time holding the Presidency for more than two consecutive four-year terms, so the fact that Republicans are concluding an eight year run plays to Obama’s advantage. Since Democratic Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman served a combined twenty consecutive years (1933-53) in office, there has been only one other time when a party has exceeded the two-term trend. This singular post-New Deal era dominance occurred during the 80s and early 90s, when Republicans Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush served continuously from 1981 to 1993.

Obama also enjoys substantial advantages in the areas of campaign organization, both financially and on the ground. The Illinois Democrat set a record for presidential fundraising in the 2008 election cycle, raking in over $521 million through the September 30th public disclosure deadline. Being the first candidate to eschew public financing for his general election campaign, a record-setting performance was expected. Every other candidate has raised private money only for the primaries but the Illinois Senator’s overall effort still must be rated as excellent, nonetheless. That being said, the Obama receipts are a whopping 42.3% above those of his 2004 Democratic predecessor, Sen. John Kerry. McCain, on the other hand, ticks above President Bush’s final number by an anemic 0.4%.
In terms of political ground forces, the McCain team did not adopt the Bush emphasis on voter registration, turnout, and volunteer politics. Obama did, and the results are now presenting themselves. In the key battleground state of Nevada, for example, Democratic registration is up over 124,000 people from the 2004 election, while Republicans picked up just 35,000. In Florida, Democratic registration has outpaced the GOP’s total 600,000 to 200,000. In New Hampshire, another small but important swing state, 35,000 new Democrats joined the registration roles versus just 1,000 Republicans, and in Pennsylvania the gap between Ds and Rs is now 4.5 million to 3.2 million.

The mood of the country also favors Obama and the Democrats, which could be the most telling factor of all. With all polls suggesting that the national “right direction/wrong track” sentiment is overwhelmingly negative (some polls show that less than 10% of Americans believe things are headed in the right direction), the candidate of the party perceived to be in charge has a major obstacle to overcome. Even though the Democrats control both houses of Congress, the public is clearly not attaching any of the downturn blame onto them, so Republicans are bearing the brunt of people’s disapproval. Another telling indicator of future electoral success is monitoring voters’ belief as to who will win the election regardless of their personal preference. By margins of 70% or greater, today’s respondents predict an Obama victory.

Still another fundamental test is measuring the penchant of voters from states that each side must organize into their winning national coalition. Here, John McCain has always had the easier road simply because claiming all 29 states that supported George W. Bush twice would award him the Presidency. Now in the final days of the election, McCain is in serious jeopardy of losing as many as eight of these twenty-nine domains. Even if he scores last minute wins in the critical states of Ohio and Florida, his deficit margins in Colorado and Virginia seem too large to overcome. He is also having trouble in North Carolina, North Dakota, Nevada, and Missouri. Unfortunately, from the McCain perspective, he must win all of the aforementioned states to secure victory since he is not in range to snatch any of the weaker Democratic states.

Added together, these fundamental measures suggest a win for Barack Obama that exceeds the pollsters projections. On Tuesday night, we will find out for sure.